Key Takeaways

The health of the job market has taken on new significance for financial markets and the Federal Reserve as signs mount that President Donald Trump's tariffs are straining the economy.

Forecasters expect Friday's report on the job market to show the economy added 133,000 jobs in April, down from 228,000 in March, according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal . Anything much less than that could be a red flag for the economy's trajectory, especially in light of other economic data this week showing the nation's economic output shrank in the first quarter .

"A report like this builds anticipation for Friday’s payroll numbers since the trajectory for growth hinges on the health of the labor market," Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial, wrote in a commentary.

Signs of trouble in the labor market continued to mount Thursday when a survey of supply managers showed the industry the tariffs are meant to help—manufacturing—is struggling to adapt to them. The survey suggested manufacturers are laying off workers as tariff orders are being implemented.

"Respondents’ companies continue to reduce headcounts through layoffs, attrition, and hiring freezes," Timothy R. Fiore, chair of the Institute for Supply Management, wrote in Thursday's report. "Layoffs were the primary tools used, an indication that headcount reduction is becoming more urgent.”

A worse-than-expected jobs report could have implications for the Federal Reserve, which is tasked with a dual mandate to keep employment high while subduing inflation. A drop in employment could encourage the Fed to boost the economy by dropping its benchmark interest rate from its current high level, which would reduce borrowing costs on all kinds of loans.

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