(Bloomberg) -- The upgrade of Germany’s first-quarter output numbers is primarily due to businesses and exporters attempting to get ahead of expected US tariffs, according to Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel.

“We had a stronger-than-expected first quarter, with growth of 0.4%,” he said in Mannheim on Tuesday. “This was more than we originally expected a few weeks ago, because there are, of course, many cautionary effects connected to tariff policy. We therefore expect the economy to weaken over the rest of the year, in line with tariff policy.”

Analysts anticipate a slowdown in Europe’s largest economy in the coming months and the medium-term outlook is highly uncertain.

Germany is seen as particularly vulnerable to US trade tariffs and remains subject to sectoral measures on things like cars. At the same time, plans by the new government to massively boost defense and infrastructure outlays have brought some optimism.

Most international institutions and economists expect stagnation in 2025. That would mark an unprecedented third straight year without growth. Even another contraction — as in 2023 and 2024 — looks possible depending on US President Donald Trump’s levies.

“You can already see how the uncertainty has affected the German economy,” Nagel said.