• Apr 11, 2025

Trump has 90 days to do 150 trade deals. Financial markets aren’t buying it

President Donald Trump and his advisers said this was the plan all along: Scare the bejesus out of the world by announcing astronomically high tariffs, get countries to come to the negotiating table, and — with the exception of China — back away from the most punishing trade barriers as America works out new trade agreements around the globe.

  • Apr 11, 2025

Traders lighten bets on Fed rate cuts, still eye June start

Prices of interest-rate futures continue to reflect expectations that the U.S. central bank will start reducing its policy rate in June, though with less certainty than earlier, with the market-indicated probability around 75%, versus more than 80% earlier in the day. Traders see the Fed delivering three rate cuts in total over the course of the year, pulling back from bets on a fourth rate cut.

  • Apr 11, 2025

Argentina FX futures jittery as traders place bets ahead of IMF deal

Argentine peso futures have weakened sharply in recent days as traders place tentative bets on a faster depreciation of the embattled currency amid uncertainty over the exchange rate regime ahead of a deal with the International Monetary Fund. The April peso future contract has weakened to around 1,180 per dollar from 1,125 on April 9 when the IMF announced that it had reached a staff-level agreement with Argentina over a new $20 billion loan program to help bolster depleted reserves. That's seen traders playing a guessing game on what that might mean for the currency, which is currently held in check by strict capital controls and a so-called crawling peg, which allows it to depreciate at 1% each month currently.

  • Apr 11, 2025

US consumer sentiment, inflation expectations deteriorate sharply in April

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. consumer sentiment deteriorated sharply in April and 12-month inflation expectations surged to the highest level since 1981 amid unease over escalating trade tensions. The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers on Friday said its Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 50.8 this month from a final reading of 57.0 in March. "Consumers report multiple warning signs that raise the risk of recession: expectations for business conditions, personal finances, incomes, inflation, and labor markets all continued to deteriorate this month."

  • Apr 11, 2025

Fed should 'lean against' persistent tariff-driven inflation, Musalem says

Noting high uncertainty over the effects and timing of tariffs and other new policies and the "distinct possibility" that inflation reaccelerates even as the labor market softens, Musalem said Fed policy is well positioned and should remain vigilant. "I would be wary of assuming the impact of high tariffs on inflation would be only brief or limited," Musalem told the Arkansas Bankers Association. "I consider it appropriate to 'lean against' second-round effects with monetary policy, although discerning between underlying inflation and the direct, indirect and second-round effects of tariffs is likely to be challenging in real time."